European and German greenhouse gas reduction targets of 80-95% by 2050 will require substantial contributions from the transport sector. The high ambition level of legislation motivated the FVV to comission a study in order to develop, model and assess scenarios assuming 100% renewable energy in transport by 2050. The analyses cover their feasibility as well as their impact on current developments and future use of combustion engines in transport. Three fuel and powertrain scenarios – one centred on synthetic fuels, another one on electric mobility and a third one including a balanced mix of approaches – were defined and then modelled with two distinct transportation demand scenarios (“high”, “low”) for Germany and the EU-28.
The key conclusions that can be drawn from this study to achieve a robust sustainable development in mobility even at high transportation demands are: A rearrangement of the fuel care in the mobility from conventional to regenerative energy sources as the basis for fuel in transportation can be guaranteed. It points towards the contradicting optimisation of efficiency and system usefulness. Optimisation of different fuel options is directly linked to the energy converter used in the vehicle. Today pure battery electric vehicles (BEV), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV) or vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) compete. The principal economic feasibility of a sustainable fuel supply of power-to-gas or power-to-liquid is demonstrated using the example of Germany.
The massive investments needed for an energy transition in the transportation sector will require a risk adequate investment security, i.e. international energy policies must set robust long-term and intermediate targets to provide the necessary legal certainty to all actors in the fuel/vehicle value chain.