Achieving greenhouse gas neutrality in the European energy system
With its cross-industry orientation study ›Greenhouse gas-neutral European Energy System‹, FVV is expanding its purely transport-related field of observation to include efforts to achieve defossilisation in the EU. The focus is now on the energy system as a whole, including the interactions between individual sectors such as transport, industry and heat generation. Dr David Bothe from Frontier Economics, coordinator of the research project, explains the key points of the study.
What is the objective of the study?
The study builds on a series of previous FVV studies that focused on the ideal combination of technologies for achieving carbon neutrality in the European transport sector. The findings showed that most of the impediments to introducing new powertrain technologies were related to the energy infrastructure, for example the speed at which the charging infrastructure and power grid are being expanded. Yet these systems are not being set up exclusively for the transport sector, but are also available to all other sectors, such as for heating applications and industry. This gives rise to the question of how use by other sectors affects the transport sector. Are there synergies because the infrastructure needs to be expanded for other sectors anyway? Or does it create shortages because other sectors also rely on the scarce resources? The new study therefore looks at the options for defossilisation throughout the entire European economy, including building heating, key industries, general electricity consumption, and of course the transport sector, too. To do this, we have brought together 17 new working groups comprising experts from companies and research institutions. Based on discussions between these experts, we then developed a forecast of the parameters that best describe future developments in each area from today’s perspective, and integrated this into the study.
Which fields do the 17 new working groups relate to?
For the transport sector, we already have excellent, detailed data from previous studies. All this sector needed was an update. The new working groups have allowed us to integrate technologies that were not covered before, such as heating systems, industrial processes, synthesis processes, bioenergy and nuclear power. We were able to draw on FVV’s network here, which in turn is also linked with other structures. This extensive network allowed us to put together groups that cover all relevant topics with a great deal of depth and expertise. Because capacity is limited, we focused mainly on the most important mainstream technologies. Fields like biofuels, for example, extend to countless processes and factors, and examining all of them in full would be impossible within the scope of the study. In these cases, we focused on the key technologies.
How did you integrate the additional sectors and industrial fields in terms of technology?
We are building on an existing model of the European energy market that takes various energy carriers into account simultaneously – not just electricity, but also hydrogen and its derivatives, methane, and liquid hydrocarbons. We are now expanding this model so that it can also be used for decisions on end-user technologies. For example, we might provide the model with the areas to be heated and the building structure in a region. The model then decides which technology will achieve the best results for a new investment in a heating system, taking the entire energy supply chain into account. For a heat pump, for example, this means that the required electricity infrastructure and power plant capacity is considered. The model conducts this step simultaneously for industry, heat supply and transport. For the energy carrier hydrogen, for example, it determines where an additional molecule could contribute most to reducing carbon emissions – in a heating system, in a vehicle or in the steel industry. The simulation model thus optimises the technology combinations with the aim of minimizing total carbon emissions.
How does the study’s simulation model work?
From a technical point of view, the simulation is a linear optimisation model, i.e. it has a target function. In this case, this is the task of minimizing carbon emissions, and complying with countless auxiliary conditions. The model then looks for the best possible technology, taking the necessary infrastructure and the resulting total carbon footprint into account. The result is a mathematically clear solution that represents the ideal case. This can then be used as the basis for developing different scenarios, such as adding a new technology or removing another, in order to make comparisons. That is one of the model’s biggest benefits – it does not simply run once and produce a result, but instead provides a tool with which we can conduct if-then analyses.
How does this study differ from other work on this topic?
Most of the existing greenhouse gas studies take political measures for achieving the climate targets as their starting point and then work backwards to calculate what investment and development this will need, for example. But they often overlook the time and resources it takes to implement that kind of transformation in practice. Our study takes a different approach: We analyse which pathway leads to the lowest total CO2 emissions, taking into account that there are limits on what is feasible in the technical conversion of infrastructure. To do this, the expert groups determine the implementation rates that are realistic for new technologies. How quickly can heating systems be replaced or energy grids expanded? Based on these auxiliary conditions, we then search a large optimisation model for the technology combinations that ensure the maximum climate protection that can be achieved.
Is it even possible for the EU to achieve climate neutrality by 2050?
We will certainly use the results of our study to conduct a reality check on the targets. At the moment, we can see that we are already lagging behind the ambitious political targets for CO2 reduction in many areas. The study will therefore help to develop scenarios and plans that are actually technically feasible in practice. We take an engineering point of view and analyse how quickly the transformation would actually be possible under ideal conditions.
Is it enough to look only at Europe, or should we be taking a global view?
Europe is a good place to start, as many critical infrastructures that have been identified as bottlenecks in other studies are located here. For example, we have a European electricity and gas grid and are establishing a European hydrogen supply network, so there is strong interaction between the individual European countries. But it is also clear that climate protection can ultimately only be achieved on a global scale, and only if we continue to use energy sources from outside Europe. We will still need to import large quantities of renewable energies in the long term. Of course, that puts us in competition with other regions of the world. In the study, we show these global dependencies with a »fair share« approach for Europe. This means that we do not assume that Europe will be able to enjoy exclusive use of the world’s most cost-efficient resources, but instead will receive a fair share. Within Europe, we analyse the infrastructure chains of the energy sources in great detail, all the way up to individual end applications.
Dr. David BotheOne of the most fascinating aspects of the study is that it is completely detached from political considerations at all. We do not aim to put certain political assumptions into practice, but we focus purely on scientific and technical aspects. We look for the technology combinations that reduce CO2 emissions as effectively as possible, provided that they are technically feasible within the given timeframe.
The global political situation regarding future greenhouse gas regulations is currently unclear. How does this impact the study’s results?
One of the most fascinating aspects of the study is that it is completely detached from political considerations at all. We do not aim to put certain political assumptions into practice, but we focus purely on scientific and technical aspects. We look for the technology combinations that reduce CO2 emissions as effectively as possible, provided that they are technically feasible within the given timeframe. As such, we explicitly do not provide forecasts or predictions, but simply develop purely theoretical scenarios. The reality is shaped by politics, by financial opportunities, and perhaps by lobbying from certain groups. FVV makes an important expert contribution to this emotionally charged debate by emphasising the purely technical side. As such, we may be able to help bring policy and regulations a little closer to reality.
Often, studies investigating similar topics come to entirely different conclusions. Why does this happen?
Looking at the landscape of scientific research, there are areas with a broad consensus. I would not go as far as to say that the results are always totally different. However, all of these studies are focused on the future. They are working with parameters that describe a world that we do not yet know. This means that assumptions have to be made. Especially when it comes to life cycle approaches, you quickly come across detailed questions that can have a major impact on the final result. It is natural to come to different conclusions and results. That is why it is so important to see the results of studies not as a general forecast, but as a logical statement (»if assumption A is true, then B«) that only applies when the assumed constraints are taken into account. Because these parameters are so important, we have invested a great deal of time and effort into gathering the latest knowledge of experts working on these topics and using it to generate what we believe to be the highest quality data set available today.
How is the study progressing? When will results be available?
The first half of the study was spent setting up the database and compiling the data and parameters. Comprising all technology options including carbon footprint, costs and efficiency, this database will be published within FVV and made available to the member companies for their own investigations and analyses. The data is currently being entered into the calculation model. The first simulations be conducted as soon as this step is completed. Initial results are expected in the third quarter of 2025. This is a very exciting phase for us, because these first results will highlight whether and where we need to adjust details and refine model parameters. At the end of this process, we will see the quantitative results. I expect this to happen by the end of 2025. //
